Restock note: week starting 28 Nov 2011

Demo data: UCI Online Retail II (real, anonymised orders of a UK online gift shop, CC BY 4.0), replayed as of 27 Nov 2011

Restock noteFor this week, you should have 2993 units of Red harmonica in box, 2596 units of Small popcorn holder, and 2592 units of Rabbit night light ready. The biggest expected rise is 79% for the Set of 60 pantry design cake cases, and the biggest expected drop is 58% for the Rabbit night light. During cleaning, 70254 rows of the file were set aside.

Written by gemma-4-E2B-it-Q4_0 (local, llama.cpp). Every number in it was checked against the table below.

How to read this: the forecast gives a likely range. Most weeks should land inside it. “Keep for a busy week” is the top of that range, so you rarely run out.

What do the technical names mean?

Likely range = P10 to P90. P10: sales fall below this in about 1 week out of 10. P90: sales go above this in about 1 week out of 10. So about 8 weeks out of 10 land in between.

Expected = the middle forecast (P50, the median). Keep for a busy week = P90.

Actually sold is what the shop really sold that week, from the same public file. The forecast never saw it.

The small line shows weekly units sold, 5 Sep to 21 Nov 2011 (12 full weeks before the forecast); each line is scaled to its own product, so compare shapes, not heights. Wide-range note: shown when P90 is at least 8 times P10.

Next week, per product

Forecast for the week starting 28 Nov 2011, in units, with what really sold. Sorted by “Keep for a busy week”.
ProductPast 12 weeksExpectedLikely rangeKeep for a busy weekActually sold
Red harmonica in box
Sales of this item swing a lot week to week.
51244–2,9932,9931,120 Inside range
Small popcorn holder1,276654–2,5962,5963,271 Sold above range
Rabbit night light1,249633–2,5922,5924,452 Sold above range
Assorted colour bird ornament1,109582–2,2462,246953 Inside range
World war 2 gliders asstd designs1,125593–2,2202,220689 Inside range
Jumbo bag red retrospot1,120590–2,2172,2171,040 Inside range
Paper chain kit 50's christmas1,042468–2,1812,1811,562 Inside range
Mini paint set vintage
Sales of this item swing a lot week to week.
535152–1,4711,471301 Inside range
White hanging heart t-light holder650291–1,4631,463730 Inside range
60 cake cases vintage christmas562221–1,4611,4611,031 Inside range
Jumbo bag vintage doily619256–1,3641,364336 Inside range
Pack of 72 retrospot cake cases524227–1,1451,145546 Inside range
Pack of 12 london tissues
Sales of this item swing a lot week to week.
371126–1,0101,010636 Inside range
Jumbo bag pink polkadot395149–987987436 Inside range
Bubblegum ring assorted396155–981981511 Inside range
Victorian glass hanging t-light387149–959959749 Inside range
Set of 60 pantry design cake cases375135–941941148 Inside range
Jumbo bag apples373131–939939221 Inside range
Brocade ring purse380141–935935130 Sold below range
Pack of 60 pink paisley cake cases386147–932932239 Inside range

  1. Red harmonica in box

    Sales of this item swing a lot week to week.
    Past 12 weeks
    Expected
    512
    Likely range
    44–2,993
    Keep for a busy week
    2,993
    Actually sold
    1,120
    Inside range

  2. Small popcorn holder

    Past 12 weeks
    Expected
    1,276
    Likely range
    654–2,596
    Keep for a busy week
    2,596
    Actually sold
    3,271
    Sold above range

  3. Rabbit night light

    Past 12 weeks
    Expected
    1,249
    Likely range
    633–2,592
    Keep for a busy week
    2,592
    Actually sold
    4,452
    Sold above range

  4. Assorted colour bird ornament

    Past 12 weeks
    Expected
    1,109
    Likely range
    582–2,246
    Keep for a busy week
    2,246
    Actually sold
    953
    Inside range

  5. World war 2 gliders asstd designs

    Past 12 weeks
    Expected
    1,125
    Likely range
    593–2,220
    Keep for a busy week
    2,220
    Actually sold
    689
    Inside range

  6. Jumbo bag red retrospot

    Past 12 weeks
    Expected
    1,120
    Likely range
    590–2,217
    Keep for a busy week
    2,217
    Actually sold
    1,040
    Inside range

  7. Paper chain kit 50's christmas

    Past 12 weeks
    Expected
    1,042
    Likely range
    468–2,181
    Keep for a busy week
    2,181
    Actually sold
    1,562
    Inside range

  8. Mini paint set vintage

    Sales of this item swing a lot week to week.
    Past 12 weeks
    Expected
    535
    Likely range
    152–1,471
    Keep for a busy week
    1,471
    Actually sold
    301
    Inside range

  9. White hanging heart t-light holder

    Past 12 weeks
    Expected
    650
    Likely range
    291–1,463
    Keep for a busy week
    1,463
    Actually sold
    730
    Inside range

  10. 60 cake cases vintage christmas

    Past 12 weeks
    Expected
    562
    Likely range
    221–1,461
    Keep for a busy week
    1,461
    Actually sold
    1,031
    Inside range

  11. Jumbo bag vintage doily

    Past 12 weeks
    Expected
    619
    Likely range
    256–1,364
    Keep for a busy week
    1,364
    Actually sold
    336
    Inside range

  12. Pack of 72 retrospot cake cases

    Past 12 weeks
    Expected
    524
    Likely range
    227–1,145
    Keep for a busy week
    1,145
    Actually sold
    546
    Inside range

  13. Pack of 12 london tissues

    Sales of this item swing a lot week to week.
    Past 12 weeks
    Expected
    371
    Likely range
    126–1,010
    Keep for a busy week
    1,010
    Actually sold
    636
    Inside range

  14. Jumbo bag pink polkadot

    Past 12 weeks
    Expected
    395
    Likely range
    149–987
    Keep for a busy week
    987
    Actually sold
    436
    Inside range

  15. Bubblegum ring assorted

    Past 12 weeks
    Expected
    396
    Likely range
    155–981
    Keep for a busy week
    981
    Actually sold
    511
    Inside range

  16. Victorian glass hanging t-light

    Past 12 weeks
    Expected
    387
    Likely range
    149–959
    Keep for a busy week
    959
    Actually sold
    749
    Inside range

  17. Set of 60 pantry design cake cases

    Past 12 weeks
    Expected
    375
    Likely range
    135–941
    Keep for a busy week
    941
    Actually sold
    148
    Inside range

  18. Jumbo bag apples

    Past 12 weeks
    Expected
    373
    Likely range
    131–939
    Keep for a busy week
    939
    Actually sold
    221
    Inside range

  19. Brocade ring purse

    Past 12 weeks
    Expected
    380
    Likely range
    141–935
    Keep for a busy week
    935
    Actually sold
    130
    Sold below range

  20. Pack of 60 pink paisley cake cases

    Past 12 weeks
    Expected
    386
    Likely range
    147–932
    Keep for a busy week
    932
    Actually sold
    239
    Inside range

What was cleaned

1,067,371 rows in, 997,117 rows counted as sales. Nothing was deleted without a reason: every set-aside row is listed in issues.csv with its row number.

ReasonRows
exact duplicate of an earlier row34,335
not a product (postage, fee or manual adjustment)5,869
cancellation / return line21,302
sale that a later cancellation undoes6,180
price is zero or negative (free item or correction)2,568